Prediction markets put the probability at 60%: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31. Currently, markets are divided (60% YES, 40% NO). Bettors have placed an 84% probability that Iran and Oman will reach an agreement by August 15, up by 20%.
Currently at 60%
Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 60c YES.