As of October 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?” at 6% YES with $61K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: us-iran hormuz agreement by october 15?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 93c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 82% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–97c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 94c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 94c, a high-conviction bet that the agreement will not happen, and is currently at a loss as NO trades below entry. This positioning signals smart money sees near-zero probability of a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by the deadline, reinforcing the bearish YES outlook. With no YES entries tracked, there is no countervailing smart-money interest in the upside.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.2K | -1% |
With YES at 6c, both sides show 0% in profit, indicating the market has repriced sharply against YES and current NO holders are also underwater relative to their entries. The absence of profitable positions on either side suggests thin liquidity and no strong price support at these levels. The dominant NO side reflects overwhelming consensus that an agreement is unlikely by October 15.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $61K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $61K |
| Our Model | 10c | — |