US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 30% YES on Polymarket with $1.1M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

70c

YES

30c

Prediction markets give a 30% probability to: us-iran nuclear deal by april 30?.

Currently at 30%

Traded on Polymarket — $1.1M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 30c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

$1.1M traded on this market. OddsShift tracks 2 smart wallets and runs 5 AI models to find where the market is wrong.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 30c

Smart money entered YES at 14c. 100% of YES wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 14c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$6.8K	+123%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 30c (+123%), $6.8K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$5.9K	-12%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 70c (-12%), $5.9K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 14c, NO wallets at 79c. At current price 30c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 30c YES — $1.1M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 30c with $1.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 30c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	30c	$1.1M
Our Model	30c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 30% YES with $1.1M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30??

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.