AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 66c — a conviction-level entry near even-odds, not a late fade of an already-dead market. That timing signals the tracked wallet saw the April 30 deadline as structurally unreachable well before consensus caught up. Current 8c confirms the thesis; no YES accumulation means no counter-signal to a clean NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $26.2K | +31% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$13,210 on $26.2K capital deployed (avg +50.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $2.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |