How did 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $6.9M

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Resolved · JUN 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	28c	44%
Compound Signal	NO	29c	42%
Claude Analysis	NO	6c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	14c	75%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	14c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money positioning is dominantly NO-skewed, signaling low conviction that a US-Iran nuclear deal materializes by May 31. The lone YES entry near current price suggests a small speculative tail bet rather than informed accumulation, reinforcing the bearish base case.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$10.6K	-16%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (-16%), $10.6K on YES Activity · 15 events · May 01 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal May 01BUYYES16+$445$445 May 03BUYYES16+$1,401$1,848 May 06BUYYES25+$2,010$4,945 May 07BUYYES25+$1,202$5,982 May 08BUYYES20+$415$5,176 May 10BUYYES16+$150$4,450 May 14BUYYES8+$902$3,094 May 15BUYYES8+$60$3,154 May 20BUYYES17+$715$7,371 May 22BUYYES9+$597$4,440 May 23BUYYES24+$24$12,255 May 24BUYYES30+$483$15,731 May 25BUYYES26+$721$14,141 May 26BUYYES19+$3,797$14,168 May 27BUYYES21+$212$15,971 Realized— Unrealized−$2,520 Total Profit−$2,520 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1886) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$10,615 on $10.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	14c	$6.9M	0c
AI Consensus	18c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar