US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Switch between CA and NY editions here.

What’s Happening

On May 1, 2026, Iran formally submitted its latest negotiation proposal to Washington via Pakistani mediators, according to state-run IRNA. The proposal, delivered by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reportedly prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade before addressing nuclear program limits—a sequencing that diverges from Washington’s insistence that nuclear restrictions remain central. This diplomatic overture comes amid active hostilities, with the New York Post reporting that the text represents Tehran’s bid to end its war with the United States. The move has injected fresh uncertainty into the market for a us-iran nuclear deal by may 31, which currently sits at 16% YES probability, as traders weigh whether the proposal can bridge fundamental disagreements within the remaining weeks. [New York Post, May 1]

The proposal’s reception has exposed sharp divisions among key stakeholders. U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly expressed skepticism, telling reporters over the weekend that he doubts Iran’s willingness to make concessions on nuclear limits, while mediators describe the coming days as "especially critical" for reaching a framework. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled potential defiance, having previously convinced Trump to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal in May 2018. The Jerusalem Post notes that Netanyahu has thrice persuaded Trump to act against Iran, raising questions about whether Israel would comply with a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. This geopolitical friction directly impacts the feasibility of a us-iran nuclear deal by may 31, as any agreement would require simultaneous buy-in from both Washington and Jerusalem. [Ynetnews, Apr 28] [Jerusalem Post, Apr 28]

The structural factor determining the outcome is the unresolved tension between sequencing and verification. Iran’s proposal seeks to defer nuclear talks in favor of immediate maritime security guarantees, while the U.S. insists that any deal must include verifiable limits on uranium enrichment—a position reinforced by the Institute for the Study of War’s report that 261 Iranian parliament members issued a statement on April 27 backing Ghalibaf’s negotiating team, signaling domestic political cohesion behind the current approach. Without a compromise on whether nuclear restrictions are a prerequisite or a deferred item, the window for a us-iran nuclear deal by may 31 remains narrow. Analysts at the Times of Israel have suggested that any eventual agreement would need to be “one big beautiful” framework that firmly protects Israel from nuclear attack, a standard that may prove incompatible with Iran’s current proposal. [Institute for the Study of War, Apr 28] [Times of Israel (Blogs), Apr 25]

Traded on Polymarket — $60K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($60K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 16c YES.