AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
84%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is one-sided NO, with the tracked wallet entering near-certainty territory at 95c — a classic structural status-quo bet that near-term Iran sanction relief stays off the table. The absence of any YES tracked positioning reinforces a durable directional read: this is treated as a status-quo-holds market, not a live catalyst, and the signal points firmly to NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.5K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$81 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg +5.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $241.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |