Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: US x China Military clash before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Home » Japan’s US-2 joins Balikatan exercises in South China Sea.
Down from 12% to 8% since 2026-04-14 (-4pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $126K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $126K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.