As of October 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?” at 56% YES with $62K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 56% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 18c vs market 56c. BUY NO at 56c — models see 38c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 65% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–98c vs 44c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 82c — market prices it at 44c. 38-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 43c, positioning against a ceasefire continuation and now sitting in profit as YES trades at 56c. This concentrated NO entry signals smart money expects the ceasefire to break or at least fade in probability. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, the directional signal leans bearish for YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | NO | $1.3K | +3% |
With YES at 56c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions entered at 43c sit in profit, creating asymmetric pressure on the YES side. The absence of profitable YES entries suggests weak conviction and limited upside support at current levels. NO holders have strong incentive to defend their gains, capping YES rallies.
Polymarket prices YES at 56c with $62K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 18c. Significant 38-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56c | $62K |
| Our Model | 18c | — |