As of October 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?” at 94% YES with $184K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through october 12?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 96c vs market 94c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 95c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 72c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 95c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 96c | 78% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (94–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 96c — market prices it at 94c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 93c, positioning itself as smart money aligned with the dominant bullish side. This entry near the current price signals confidence in ceasefire continuation through October 12, though the thin wallet sample limits broader inference. With no NO entries to counterbalance, the tracked flow reinforces upward price pressure and consensus direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.3K | +2% |
With YES trading at 94c, all tracked YES entries from 93c are marginally in profit, while no NO positions exist in the dataset. The absence of NO entries and 100% YES profitability suggest strong one-sided conviction, with the 93c entry acting as near-term support. At 94c, the market prices a 94% probability of ceasefire continuation, leaving little room for upside but meaningful downside risk if sentiment shifts.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $184K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 96c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $184K |
| Our Model | 96c | — |