As of October 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?” at 80% YES with $60K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 80% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15?.
On this market: 5/6 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (82–98c vs 80c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 86c — market prices it at 80c. 6-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 35c — Market's 80% YES and PIN's 98% ignore fat-tail escalation risks in a 13-day window where a single IRGC proxy strike, Israeli preemption, ...
1 of 2 Wallets Is a Geopolitics Specialist
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on YES, entering between 79c and 82c, signaling concentrated smart-money conviction that the ceasefire holds through October 15. No NO entries from these wallets suggests they see little value in betting against continuation at current odds. Their clustered entries imply the 79c-80c zone is viewed as fair-to-cheap for the YES outcome.
YES holders at 79c-82c are roughly breakeven to modestly profitable at the current 80c mark, with 50% in profit and no NO positions showing gains. The absence of profitable NO entries removes downside pressure from sellers, leaving the 80c level supported by YES holders defending their entries. With no NO profit-taking incentive, price is more likely to drift toward the upper end of the 79c-82c entry band.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
50%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 80c YES — $60K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 80c with $60K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 86c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 80% YES with $60K in total volume.
Where can I bet on US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 86c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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