As of October 18, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?” at 94% YES with $273K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through october 22?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 94c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 93c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 72c | 38% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 95c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 96c | 85% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 8 models estimate YES fair value below market (75–97c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 92c — market prices it at 94c. 2-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively YES from 93c, signaling conviction that the ceasefire holds through October 22. With no offsetting NO entries, this is a one-sided directional bet rather than a hedge, so its signal is bullish but based on a single data point. The entry near the current price suggests the wallet is not chasing a breakout but anchoring to fair value around 93-94c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $1.2K | +1% |
All tracked YES positions entered at 93c are in profit with the market at 94c, a thin 1c edge that leaves little cushion. With no NO entries recorded, there is no losing side to create sell pressure, and the profitable YES cohort has weak incentive to exit at such a marginal gain, supporting the 94c level. The absence of NO profit-takers means downside pressure is minimal, keeping the price sticky near current levels.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $273K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 92c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $273K |
| Our Model | 92c | — |