As of October 18, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?” at 92% YES with $90K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 92% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through october 24?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned NO, but 3/6 models estimate YES. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 54c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 88c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 85c | 75% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value below market (85–88c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 87c — market prices it at 92c. 5-point gap supports NO.
Only one tracked wallet is positioned, and it is on the NO side at 15c, a contrarian bet against ceasefire continuation that is currently losing. With no YES entries recorded, there is no smart-money confirmation of the 92c level; the lone NO entry signals a small minority expecting a breakdown, but the sample is too thin to read as directional conviction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | NO | $1.1K | -47% |
Neither side is in profit at the current 92c mark: YES holders are underwater relative to their entries, and the single NO position entered at 15c is deeply out of the money. With no profitable cohort, there is little natural selling pressure from YES winners, but the 92c price implies the market is pricing near-certain continuation, leaving asymmetric downside for NO holders.
Polymarket prices YES at 92c with $90K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 87c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $90K |
| Our Model | 87c | — |