AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (2 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c |
35%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 42c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 70c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 70c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 63c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.2K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,162 on $2.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 70c | $343.0K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 70c | — | × missed |