Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (2 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Nov 07, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $11.9M

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Q: How did 'US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Nov 07, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · NOV 07

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 2 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 2 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 7 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	96c	92%
Compound Signal	YES	75c	50%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	93c	72%
Grok Contrarian	NO	62c	41%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	90%
Kimi Macro	YES	92c	78%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 85c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

All 8 tracked wallets are positioned on the dominant YES side, with entries spanning 72c-94c indicating accumulation across the rally rather than a single late chase. The lack of any profitable NO entries signals smart money has not faded the ceasefire thesis, and the 72c-94c entry band implies conviction that continuation through October 31 remains the base case.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xfcf2..69	Smart	NO	$1.3K	-107%
This Market Entered at 27c → now 50c (-107%), $1.3K on NO Activity · 7 events · Oct 19 → Oct 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 19BUYNO48+$1,503$1,503 Oct 21BUYNO26+$522$1,331 Oct 22BUYNO28+$1,623$3,082 Oct 23BUYNO28+$1,626$4,707 Oct 24BUYNO20+$710$4,059 Oct 25BUYNO19+$19$3,848 Oct 27BUYNO10+$360$2,387 Realized— Unrealized−$5,052 Total Profit−$5,052 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1962 resolved bets. Disagrees with consensus.
0x12d6..a8	Retail	YES	$103.4K	+22%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (+22%), $103.4K on YES Activity · 32 events · Sep 19 → Oct 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES47+$3,087$3,087 Sep 19SELLYES49−$1,746$1,449 Sep 20SELLYES48−$266$1,154 Sep 23SELLYES63−$423$1,091 Sep 25BUYYES60+$1,435$2,474 Sep 26BUYYES58+$2,514$4,914 Sep 26SELLYES59−$590$4,392 Sep 27BUYYES51+$876$4,673 Sep 27SELLYES52−$220$4,544 Sep 28BUYYES54+$3,804$8,524 Sep 28SELLYES57−$2,591$6,386 Sep 29BUYYES60+$878$7,614 Sep 30BUYYES61+$1,081$8,790 Sep 30SELLYES55−$227$7,731 Oct 01BUYYES58+$931$9,039 Oct 01SELLYES58−$381$8,709 Oct 02BUYYES61+$4,893$14,031 Oct 03BUYYES60+$38$13,870 Oct 08BUYYES77+$4$17,804 Oct 08SELLYES70−$660$15,525 Oct 09BUYYES74+$4,553$20,948 Oct 09SELLYES76−$4,560$16,977 Oct 10BUYYES76+$355$17,332 Oct 12BUYYES79+$17,124$35,183 Oct 13BUYYES81+$15,153$51,140 Oct 13SELLYES81−$3,346$47,794 Oct 14BUYYES80+$15,379$62,748 Oct 15BUYYES78+$5,551$66,516 Oct 16BUYYES75+$2,096$66,054 Oct 21BUYYES68+$674$60,722 Oct 26BUYYES84+$4,419$79,230 Oct 27BUYYES94+$14,192$102,854 Realized+$1,588 Unrealized+$21,512 Total Profit+$23,100 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1386 trades).
0x0c0e..4e +739%	MM	YES	$28.8K	+1%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+1%), $28.8K on YES ↑ Position grew +739% since last snapshot Activity · 1 event · Oct 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 27BUYYES94+$28,467$28,466 Realized— Unrealized+$297 Total Profit+$297 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1382) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$28.0K	+26%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+26%), $28.0K on YES Activity · 15 events · Oct 04 → Oct 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 04SELLYES71−$639$0 Oct 06BUYYES73+$730$730 Oct 07BUYYES72+$4,742$5,459 Oct 08BUYYES78+$11,587$17,543 Oct 08SELLYES80−$4,488$13,465 Oct 09BUYYES75+$150$12,772 Oct 14SELLYES79−$632$12,821 Oct 16BUYYES76+$5,911$18,245 Oct 16SELLYES76−$5,911$12,334 Oct 19BUYYES59+$3,190$12,698 Oct 21BUYYES78+$3,393$20,363 Oct 23BUYYES72+$1,438$20,142 Oct 24BUYYES72+$952$21,251 Oct 25BUYYES75+$1,641$23,596 Oct 25SELLYES82−$820$25,019 Realized+$338 Unrealized+$6,124 Total Profit+$6,462 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1320) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	YES	$2.2K	-10%
This Market Entered at 81c → now 50c (-10%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Oct 16 → Oct 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 16BUYYES81+$5,693$5,693 Oct 19SELLYES62−$2,920$1,444 Realized−$889 Unrealized+$314 Total Profit−$575 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1206) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x55b4..ea	MM	NO	$2.1K	-75%
This Market Entered at 18c → now 50c (-75%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 4 events · Oct 14 → Oct 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 14BUYNO22+$873$873 Oct 19BUYNO18+$1,606$2,320 Oct 21BUYNO20+$1,258$3,836 Oct 25BUYNO17+$3,185$6,446 Realized— Unrealized−$4,837 Total Profit−$4,837 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (592) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$2.0K	+32%
This Market Entered at 72c → now 50c (+32%), $2.0K on YES Activity · 8 events · Sep 22 → Oct 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 22BUYYES66+$256$256 Sep 23SELLYES64−$248$0 Sep 29BUYYES60+$599$599 Oct 07BUYYES72+$400$1,119 Oct 12SELLYES78−$519$693 Oct 14BUYYES82+$1,056$1,785 Oct 22BUYYES73+$209$1,790 Oct 23SELLYES77−$299$1,599 Realized+$93 Unrealized+$475 Total Profit+$568 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1554 trades).
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$1.9K	-33%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 50c (-33%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 2 events · Oct 08 → Oct 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 08BUYYES79+$6,814$6,814 Oct 19SELLYES40−$2,605$813 Realized−$2,588 Unrealized+$318 Total Profit−$2,270 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1052) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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98% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$45,088 on $169.6K capital deployed (avg +26.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

98% in profit

NO positions

2% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$11.9M	100c
AI Consensus	85c	—	✓ matched

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