US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?'?

As of September 2026, prediction markets price this at 94% YES on Polymarket with $385K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

94c

As of September 21, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?” at 94% YES with $385K traded. 3 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.

Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through september 25?.

Up from 86% to 94% since 2026-09-18 (+8pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $385K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Smart-money wallets: 3 tracked wallets positioned YES. Backed by $385K in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered YES at 86c–93c. 100% of YES wallets in profit.

— TARGET YIELD

1 of 3 Wallets Is a Geopolitics Specialist

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is a geopolitics specialist with 100% win rate. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Smart	YES	$1.0K	+9%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 94c (+9%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 20BUYYES86+$953$953 Realized— Unrealized+$83 Total Profit+$83 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1292 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$1.0K	+0%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 94c (+0%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 21BUYYES93+$1,033$1,033 Realized— Unrealized+$6 Total Profit+$6 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1534 trades).
0x4337..82	MM	YES	$1.0K	+2%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 94c (+2%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES92+$1,022$1,022 Realized— Unrealized+$17 Total Profit+$17 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1130) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 86c–93c. At current price 94c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 94c YES — $385K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $385K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 94c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	94c	$385K
Our Model	94c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 94% YES with $385K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.