US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 69% YES on Polymarket with $104K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

69c

31c

Prediction markets give a 69% probability to: us ceasefire against iran continues through september 30?.

Currently at 69%

Traded on Polymarket — $104K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 69c YES with $104K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 31c

Smart money positioned NO.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$3.5K	+21%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 69c (+21%), $3.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Aug 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 19BUYYES57+$2,850$2,850 Realized— Unrealized+$600 Total Profit+$600 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1132) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 57c. At current price 69c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 69c YES — $104K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 69c with $104K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 69c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	69c	$104K
Our Model	69c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 69% YES with $104K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.