Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Sep 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $2.5M

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Q: How did 'US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Sep 30, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · SEP 30

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 4 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Claude Analysis	YES	94c	72%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	94c	62%
Grok Contrarian	NO	68c	41%
Gemini Flash	YES	95c	90%
Kimi Macro	YES	96c	78%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 91c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 of 3 Wallets Is Smart Money

All three tracked wallets are positioned on YES with entries from 89c to 93c, signaling consensus smart-money confidence in a continued ceasefire. The absence of NO entries suggests no credible counter-positioning, so the dominant directional read remains upward or stable through September 30.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Smart	YES	$13.0K	+3%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+3%), $13.0K on YES Activity · 7 events · Sep 23 → Sep 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 23BUYYES89+$267$267 Sep 24BUYYES85+$505$760 Sep 25BUYYES89+$2,507$3,304 Sep 25SELLYES90−$473$2,840 Sep 26BUYYES89+$10,009$12,840 Sep 26SELLYES92−$3,907$9,326 Sep 27BUYYES91+$3,907$13,128 Realized+$127 Unrealized+$290 Total Profit+$417 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1340 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$12.8K	+1%
This Market Entered at 90c → now 50c (+1%), $12.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 26BUYYES90+$12,653$12,652 Realized— Unrealized+$161 Total Profit+$161 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1060) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x94eb..e6	MM	YES	$4.6K	-2%
This Market Entered at 93c → now 50c (-2%), $4.6K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 27BUYYES93+$4,650$4,650 Realized— Unrealized−$75 Total Profit−$75 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1806) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,245 on $30.4K capital deployed (avg +10.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	92c	$2.5M	100c
AI Consensus	91c	—	✓ matched

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