AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 7c |
86%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 34c |
32%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 7c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 8c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 74c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 27c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $24K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 15c–60c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $11.1K | -17% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $6.8K | +26% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $5.8K | -79% | |
| 0xeec5..fe ★ | Retail | NO | $1.6K | +34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$13,056 on $25.3K capital deployed (avg -51.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $1.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 27c | — | ✓ matched |