How did 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 23, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Apr 23, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $2.8M

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Resolved · APR 23

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	83c	66%
Compound Signal	YES	62c	24%
Claude Analysis	YES	72c	55%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	72c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	35c	70%
Kimi Macro	YES	68c	72%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 65c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is bifurcated — YES entries clustered at 64-72c show directional bets on diplomatic progress, but NO positions loaded aggressively at 26c reveal conviction that the April 22 deadline won't hold. The tight 6c YES entry range vs deep NO discount positioning tilts smart-money edge toward resolution failure.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b +51%	MM	YES	$4.0K	-4%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 50c (-4%), $4.0K on YES ↑ Position grew +51% since last snapshot Activity · 10 events · Apr 14 → Apr 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES85+$1,437$1,437 Apr 14SELLYES83−$1,062$354 Apr 16BUYYES74+$1,489$1,806 Apr 17SELLYES70−$48$1,650 Apr 18BUYYES56+$871$2,199 Apr 19BUYYES83+$303$3,528 Apr 19SELLYES54−$635$1,676 Apr 20BUYYES61+$299$2,178 Apr 21BUYYES75+$1,519$4,204 Apr 21SELLYES79−$158$4,280 Realized−$184 Unrealized+$13 Total Profit−$172 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$2.9K	+5%
This Market Entered at 68c → now 50c (+5%), $2.9K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 19 → Apr 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYYES64+$1,625$1,626 Apr 20BUYYES74+$1,042$2,932 Apr 21BUYYES74+$1,081$3,986 Realized— Unrealized+$217 Total Profit+$217 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1594) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$1.3K	+4%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 50c (+4%), $1.3K on NO Activity · 3 events · Apr 14 → Apr 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYNO25+$1,082$1,082 Apr 15BUYNO26+$31$1,159 Apr 19BUYNO39+$74$1,812 Realized— Unrealized+$67 Total Profit+$67 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1698) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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15% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,185 on $8.1K capital deployed (avg -39.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

15% in profit

YES positions

85% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	73c	$2.8M	0c
AI Consensus	65c	—	× missed

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