AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
90%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is one-directional: 100% NO, no YES entries, signaling a clear read that no US-Iran meeting materializes before the July 17 deadline. The 25c entry now marked at 5c shows early, well-timed conviction on the status-quo (no-meeting) outcome. With the deadline near and no offsetting YES flow, the positioning points to NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $2.0K | +275% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,885 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +294.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $967.8K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |