AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money took a single directional NO position at 28c and has ridden it to 6c YES, signaling early and correct conviction that no US–Iran diplomatic meeting materializes before the July 31 deadline. The absence of any YES accumulation and a 100%-profitable NO book point to one-sided positioning — smart money is treating a meeting as increasingly unlikely with little time left on the clock.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.0K | +170% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,094 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +256.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |