AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 18c |
64%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 28c |
45%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 19c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned on the NO side, entering at 74c and now in profit as the contract trades down to 14c. Their entries signal conviction that a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 is unlikely, and with no tracked YES buyers in profit, smart money flow points decisively toward further downside or consolidation at low odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $6.9K | -80% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | NO | $1.7K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,204 on $8.6K capital deployed (avg +72.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $1.7M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 19c | — | × missed |