AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c |
62%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c |
28%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 96c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 76c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 89c, a late-stage, high-conviction position that signals confidence in an effective ceasefire materializing before September 18. With no NO entries from this wallet, its positioning is unambiguously directional and reinforces the 94c market price as smart-money-supported rather than speculative froth. The absence of any hedging or contrarian bets suggests the wallet views downside as minimal at this stage.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $4.0K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$517 on $4.0K capital deployed (avg +12.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $160.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 76c | — | ✓ matched |