As of September 13, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?” at 94% YES with $97K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: us x iran effective ceasefire by september 18?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 93c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c | 28% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 96c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (93–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 95c — market prices it at 94c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 89c, a late-stage, high-conviction position that signals confidence in an effective ceasefire materializing before September 18. With no NO entries from this wallet, its positioning is unambiguously directional and reinforces the 94c market price as smart-money-supported rather than speculative froth. The absence of any hedging or contrarian bets suggests the wallet views downside as minimal at this stage.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $4.0K | +5% |
With YES trading at 94c, all positions entered between 89c and 89c are in profit, giving every YES holder a 5c unrealized gain per share. No NO positions exist in the tracked set, so there is zero losing-side pressure and no profit-taking overhang from shorts. This one-sided profitability at a high price implies strong holder conviction, with little incentive to sell into a market that continues to validate the YES thesis.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $97K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 95c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $97K |
| Our Model | 95c | — |