AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
66%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c |
55%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 35c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 95c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 72c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 89c, positioning as a directional bet on a US-Iran effective ceasefire by September 30. That entry near the top of the range signals conviction rather than value-hunting, and with no offsetting NO exposure the wallet's P&L is fully aligned with resolution. Its presence at 89c implies informed or momentum-driven confidence in the YES outcome, though the thin wallet count limits how much weight to assign as smart-money confirmation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b +333% | MM | YES | $5.1K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$632 on $5.1K capital deployed (avg +12.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $285.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 72c | — | ✓ matched |