AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 83c |
66%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 64c |
28%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 64c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 74c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 70c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 70c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is cleanly split by conviction outcome, and the market has rewarded the YES thesis — the two tracked wallets on the winning side entered below current price and are being validated by the move to 72c. The losing NO entries at 47c signal an early contrarian bet on continued conflict that the tape has since overrun. Net positioning tilts toward an effective US–Iran ceasefire materializing before August 31.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | YES | $2.1K | +25% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $2.1K | +33% | |
| 0xc408..75 | MM | YES | $1.1K | +25% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,970 on $5.4K capital deployed (avg +36.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $1.9M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 71c | — | ✓ matched |