Prediction markets put the probability at 54%: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31. Currently, markets are divided (54% YES, 46% NO). The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended with relatively more intense and consistent exchanges of fire in the Persian Gulf.
The US x Iran effective ceasefire by August 31 outlook darkened sharply in mid-July after the Institute for the Study of War reported on July 13 that the truce had "effectively ended" amid intensifying exchanges in the Persian Gulf. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced on July 11 that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz and struck a Cyprus-flagged vessel, followed by a second unspecified ship on July 12. The United States responded the same day with strikes on dozens of Iranian military targets, part of a campaign that has now exceeded 300 strikes inside Iran, according to ISW's tally of degradation efforts against Tehran's ability to threaten shipping. [Understanding War, Jul 14]
Despite the escalation, US officials maintained that diplomacy remains alive. An American official said on July 10 that talks over a permanent peace deal were continuing "despite two days of clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire," easing fears of a return to all-out war. Analysts caution that the framework is brittle: The Atlantic noted on July 15 that the memorandum of understanding President Trump signed last month at Versailles was meant to make the cease-fire permanent and open a 60-day negotiating window, yet the two nations have "essentially remained at war ever since." Whether the US x Iran effective ceasefire by August 31 holds hinges on both sides' willingness to separate rhetoric from renewed fire. [Military.com, Jul 10]
The structural variable is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran warned on July 13 that ships using US-recommended routes through Omani waters face significant risk, a message consistent with reduced odds of normalization amid a US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Continued interdiction and reciprocal strikes point away from de-escalation, while sustained back-channel talks remain the primary path toward a durable US x Iran effective ceasefire by August 31. The resolution will likely turn on whether the 60-day negotiating period yields a formal agreement before the deadline, or whether Hormuz incidents keep both militaries locked in open exchange. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 13]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($60K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 54c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 46c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 46c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $4.8K | +2% |
NO wallets entered at 46c. At current price 54c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 54c with $60K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 54c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54c | $60K |
| Our Model | 54c | — |