US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 14% YES on Polymarket with $2.6M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

86c

YES

14c

Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22, 2026?.

Currently at 14%

Traded on Polymarket — $2.6M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.6M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 14c YES.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 5 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.0x conviction. Backed by $2.6M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 86c

Smart money entered NO at 87c–93c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $50K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 87c–93c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$44.8K	-1%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 86c (-1%), $44.8K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe ★	Retail	NO	$4.9K	-1%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 87c → now 86c (-1%), $4.9K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1658 trades · 100% win rate · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1658 trades).
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	NO	$2.5K	-7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 93c → now 86c (-7%), $2.5K on NO Track Record 5d on platform · 274 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$1.7K	-6%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 86c (-6%), $1.7K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$1.5K	+23%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 14c (+23%), $1.5K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 11c, NO wallets at 87c–93c. At current price 14c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 14c YES — $2.6M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $2.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	14c	$2.6M
Our Model	14c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $2.6M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.