How did 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 23, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Apr 23, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $26.1M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Resolved · APR 23

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (6 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	10c	80%
PIN Model	YES	55c	10%
Compound Signal	NO	36c	28%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	10c	75%
Grok Contrarian	NO	10c	75%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	82c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 33c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 9 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 8 market makers are providing $330K in liquidity, primarily on NO. YES wallets entered between 23c–29c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$226.5K	-40%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (-40%), $226.5K on YES Track Record 10d on platform · 1956 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1956) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$46.9K	+4%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 50c (+4%), $46.9K on NO Track Record 26d on platform · 1672 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1672) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92	MM	YES	$22.7K	-24%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (-24%), $22.7K on YES Track Record 6mo on platform · 1756 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$10.8K	+16%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 50c (+16%), $10.8K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1382 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1382) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b +566%	MM	NO	$10.6K	+20%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+20%), $10.6K on NO ↑ Position grew +566% since last snapshot Track Record 1mo on platform · 539 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (539) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe ★	Retail	NO	$9.7K	+3%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 80c → now 50c (+3%), $9.7K on NO Track Record 28d on platform · 1682 trades · 100% win rate · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1682 trades).
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$6.8K	-36%
This Market Entered at 27c → now 50c (-36%), $6.8K on YES Track Record 23d on platform · 1336 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1336) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	NO	$3.9K	-6%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (-6%), $3.9K on NO Track Record 7d on platform · 344 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (344) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$1.7K	-10%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (-10%), $1.7K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1826 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1826) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

25% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$231,580 on $339.6K capital deployed (avg -68.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

25% in profit

YES positions

75% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	18c	$26.1M	0c
AI Consensus	33c	—	✓ matched

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