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Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $24.2M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Resolved · MAY 01
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (6 of 8 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
10c
38c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 6c
88%
PIN Model NO 11c
78%
Compound Signal NO 17c
66%
Claude Analysis NO 5c
92%
DeepSeek Quant NO 8c
85%
Grok Contrarian NO 8c
75%
Kimi Macro NO 11c
90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively short this outcome: NO was accumulated at wide-ranging premiums up to 84c, signaling high conviction that no peace deal materializes by April 30. YES entries as high as 62c now trapped at 10c suggest early optimism has been fully repriced, and wallet positioning points to continued drift toward resolution NO rather than a reversal.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x12d6..a8MMNO$53.9K+20%
0xbacd..35MMYES$48.3K-86%
0x24c8..e1MMNO$36.9K+32%
0xde7b..4bMMYES$30.2K-25%
0x6bab..92MMNO$12.4K+10%
0x5188..04RetailNO$9.6K+58%
0xeec5..fe RetailNO$7.3K+20%
0x162f..8dMMYES$4.4K-98%
0xd1ac..d5MMYES$3.7K-88%
0x33c2..18MMYES$1.7K-13%
0x7c3d..6bMMYES$1.2K-76%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

57% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$36,312 on $209.7K capital deployed (avg -17.3%).

NO positions
57% in profit
YES positions
43% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 8c $24.2M 0c
AI Consensus 9c ✓ matched