AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 54c |
8%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 68c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 76c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 76c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 74c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money accumulated YES in the 43-54c range, well below current 64c, signaling conviction that a peace deal probability was systematically underpriced earlier. Despite the 'NO dominant side' tag, the only tracked positioning is YES — suggesting flow rather than balance favors deal optionality. Entries clustered below 55c indicate wallets view sub-50c as the value zone, framing any retracement toward 50c as accumulation territory rather than capitulation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc658..84 | MM | YES | $3.7K | +65% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | YES | $2.5K | +53% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 +82% | MM | NO | $2.0K | -108% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.1K | +33% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,384 on $9.2K capital deployed (avg +36.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 90c | $3.7M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 74c | — | ✓ matched |