US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 46% YES on Polymarket with $2.8M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

54c

YES

46c

Prediction markets give a 46% probability to: us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15, 2026?.

Currently at 46%

Traded on Polymarket — $2.8M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 46c YES.

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Smart money signal: 6 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $2.8M in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 54c

Smart money entered NO at 50c–64c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 6 market makers are providing $55K in liquidity, primarily on YES. NO wallets entered between 50c–64c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$18.4K	+9%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 54c (+9%), $18.4K on NO Activity · 9 events · May 20 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO74+$735$735 May 21BUYNO67+$10,607$11,271 May 22BUYNO70+$2,037$13,811 May 22SELLNO70−$1,069$12,742 May 23BUYNO31+$3,730$9,319 May 24BUYNO30+$2,002$11,176 May 24SELLNO57−$1,333$19,821 May 25BUYNO51+$292$17,958 May 25SELLNO49−$742$16,512 Realized+$229 Unrealized+$1,631 Total Profit+$1,860 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1294) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$12.6K	-16%
This Market Entered at 64c → now 54c (-16%), $12.6K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 22 → May 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYNO68+$7,115$7,116 May 23BUYNO75+$6,364$14,217 May 24BUYNO32+$1,290$7,268 Realized— Unrealized−$2,210 Total Profit−$2,210 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1974) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$9.9K	+23%
This Market Entered at 36c → now 46c (+23%), $9.9K on YES Activity · 11 events · May 18 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES17+$2,348$2,348 May 18SELLYES25−$580$2,836 May 19SELLYES22−$2,050$445 May 20BUYYES28+$1,313$1,875 May 21BUYYES32+$1,281$3,453 May 23BUYYES54+$4,509$10,307 May 24BUYYES55+$2,700$13,217 May 24SELLYES43−$1,040$9,167 May 25BUYYES49+$2,037$12,676 May 25SELLYES52−$6$13,346 May 26SELLYES51−$1,959$11,131 Realized+$927 Unrealized+$2,142 Total Profit+$3,069 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1604) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$6.7K	+43%
This Market Entered at 31c → now 46c (+43%), $6.7K on YES Activity · 11 events · May 18 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES19+$1,717$1,717 May 18SELLYES14−$280$985 May 20BUYYES29+$1,362$3,403 May 20SELLYES23−$1,400$1,338 May 21BUYYES29+$2,121$3,787 May 21SELLYES29−$3,640$134 May 22BUYYES36+$7,736$7,903 May 22SELLYES34−$20$7,444 May 23SELLYES25−$1,125$4,348 May 24SELLYES67−$3,558$8,163 May 26BUYYES46+$1,219$6,791 Realized+$1,423 Unrealized+$2,091 Total Profit+$3,514 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (964) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$6.4K	+33%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 46c (+33%), $6.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 20 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES34+$804$804 May 23BUYYES34+$4,015$4,823 Realized— Unrealized+$1,598 Total Profit+$1,598 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$1.2K	+1%
This Market Entered at 45c → now 46c (+1%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 22 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYYES31+$52$52 May 25BUYYES46+$1,107$1,185 Realized— Unrealized+$13 Total Profit+$13 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1704) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 31c–45c, NO wallets at 50c–64c. At current price 46c, all YES holders are profitable vs 50% of NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

50% in profit

Polymarket: 46c YES — $2.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 46c with $2.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 46c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	46c	$2.8M
Our Model	46c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 46% YES with $2.8M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.