Geopolitics

Resolves: Jun 2026 ended Volume: $907K

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 34% YES on Polymarket with $907K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 21c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

66c

YES

34c

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Trump 'not going to be much more patient,' says Iran can make deal or 'get annihilated'.

Up from 22% to 34% since 2026-05-19 (+12pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $907K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 34c YES with $907K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 4/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 67c

Majority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 32c — models see 11c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 of 6 Models Lean NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	63c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	62c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	94c	88%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	92c	75%
AI Gemini Flash	???	45c	60%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	68c	58%

4 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (62–94c vs 68c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 79c — market prices it at 68c. 11-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Disagrees: PIN Model dissents at 63c — PIN=100% informed trading. 2 smart vs 0 retail wallets. Informed capital concentrated 0% on NO. Fair value: 63% YES.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money accumulated YES in the low-20s before the move to 32c, signaling conviction that peace-deal odds were underpriced. With dominant NO flow on the broader market but tracked wallets leaning long YES early, the entries read as contrarian positioning anticipating diplomatic headline risk to the upside.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$5.7K	-16%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 66c (-16%), $5.7K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 19 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 19BUYNO79+$5,999$5,999 May 20BUYNO70+$725$6,041 Realized— Unrealized−$986 Total Profit−$986 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1602) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$2.9K	+10%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 34c (+10%), $2.9K on YES Activity · 7 events · May 17 → May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal May 17SELLYES14−$50$0 May 18BUYYES22+$600$600 May 19BUYYES18+$2,114$2,606 May 19SELLYES22−$185$2,999 May 20BUYYES31+$3,796$8,024 May 20SELLYES23−$3,329$2,698 May 21SELLYES32−$797$2,911 Realized+$32 Unrealized+$798 Total Profit+$830 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1380) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.9K	+16%
This Market Entered at 22c → now 34c (+16%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 18 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES19+$1,717$1,717 May 18SELLYES14−$280$985 May 20BUYYES29+$1,362$3,403 May 20SELLYES23−$1,400$1,338 Realized−$80 Unrealized+$635 Total Profit+$555 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1046) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 77 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

All YES Positions Are in Profit

Both tracked YES holders entered at 22-24c and sit ~33-45% in profit at 32c, while NO entrants have no profitable positions on the books. The asymmetric P&L gives YES holders cushion to hold through volatility, providing soft support near current levels.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 34c YES — $907K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 34c with $907K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 21c. Significant 13-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	34c	$907K
Our Model	21c	—

Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 34% YES with $907K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 21c YES. 4 models agree on direction.