Geopolitics

Resolves: Dec 2026 ended Volume: $6.4M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 70% YES on Polymarket with $6.4M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 8 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 74c YES. 5 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

70c

30c

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES).

Price has been stable at 70% since 2026-05-21

Traded on Polymarket — $6.4M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $6.4M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 70c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 5/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 70c

Majority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. 2 tier-1 wallets aligned with models — BUY YES at 72c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

5 of 7 Models Lean YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	YES	83c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	74c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	64c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	82c	72%
AI DeepSeek Quant	???	74c	55%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	75c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	74c	75%

5 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (64–83c vs 72c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 74c — market prices it at 72c. 2-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Claude Analysis dissents at 18c — Market at 72% YES is wildly mispriced against base rates: 'permanent peace deals' between adversarial states in 7 months have near-zero h...

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is net-long peace with YES entries clustered in the high-60s/low-70s — a conviction band, not speculative chasing. NO entries at 25-36c look like early hedges from before the diplomatic thaw rather than fresh shorts, and no wallet is re-loading NO at current levels. Directional read: wallets expect continued drift toward 75-80c absent a hard negotiation breakdown.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$37.5K	+14%
This Market Entered at 25c → now 30c (+14%), $37.5K on NO Activity · 17 events · May 16 → Jun 01 DatePositionAmountTotal May 16BUYNO34+$3,009$3,009 May 19BUYNO33+$2,557$5,478 May 22BUYNO28+$2,468$7,055 May 22SELLNO36−$928$8,264 May 23BUYNO30+$4,918$11,892 May 23SELLNO30−$2,335$9,455 May 24BUYNO23+$10,794$17,952 May 24SELLNO25−$2,205$17,479 May 25BUYNO19+$2,616$16,132 May 25SELLNO22−$130$18,229 May 26BUYNO19+$309$16,102 May 27BUYNO19+$5,002$21,053 May 27SELLNO19−$1,654$19,399 May 28BUYNO22+$239$22,702 May 28SELLNO22−$55$22,915 May 31BUYNO29+$6,599$36,730 Jun 01BUYNO28+$426$35,562 Realized−$458 Unrealized+$5,704 Total Profit+$5,247 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1244) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$33.8K	+10%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 70c (+10%), $33.8K on YES Activity · 10 events · May 05 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYYES67+$34,800$34,798 May 07SELLYES72−$37,748$0 May 18BUYYES65+$16,053$16,052 May 19BUYYES68+$14$16,893 May 22BUYYES70+$33,435$50,786 May 23BUYYES76+$14,726$69,941 May 24BUYYES77+$7,452$78,379 May 24SELLYES81−$9,773$72,372 May 26SELLYES81−$2,925$69,716 May 27SELLYES78−$29,564$37,716 Realized+$7,263 Unrealized+$595 Total Profit+$7,858 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1546) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$7.4K	+17%
This Market Entered at 25c → now 30c (+17%), $7.4K on NO Activity · 13 events · May 09 → May 31 DatePositionAmountTotal May 09BUYNO26+$520$520 May 11BUYNO31+$1,805$2,425 May 12BUYNO31+$544$2,968 May 18BUYNO36+$160$3,608 May 18SELLNO32−$1,984$1,228 May 23BUYNO15+$97$672 May 24BUYNO26+$2,940$4,093 May 25BUYNO24+$120$3,935 May 25SELLNO18−$31$2,921 May 26BUYNO20+$1,270$4,515 May 28BUYNO23+$614$5,807 May 29BUYNO24+$653$6,713 May 31SELLNO30−$913$7,477 Realized+$271 Unrealized+$1,019 Total Profit+$1,290 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1612) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$6.9K	-2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 72c → now 70c (-2%), $6.9K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYYES72+$7,041$7,041 Realized— Unrealized−$147 Total Profit−$147 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1686) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$5.0K	-11%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 70c (-11%), $5.0K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 25 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 25BUYYES79+$2,976$2,976 May 28BUYYES78+$2,387$5,308 May 29BUYYES78+$239$5,548 Realized— Unrealized−$588 Total Profit−$588 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1540 trades).
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$2.9K	-18%
This Market Entered at 36c → now 30c (-18%), $2.9K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 12 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO36+$3,600$3,600 May 25SELLNO24−$9$2,391 Realized−$4 Unrealized−$648 Total Profit−$652 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1042) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	YES	$2.5K	-10%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 78c → now 70c (-10%), $2.5K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 06 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES76+$152$152 May 09BUYYES75+$868$1,018 May 20BUYYES70+$240$1,191 May 23BUYYES83+$1,465$2,869 Realized— Unrealized−$275 Total Profit−$275 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1828 trades).
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.3K	+7%
This Market Entered at 65c → now 70c (+7%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 13 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYYES62+$682$682 May 19BUYYES69+$690$1,449 May 20SELLYES69−$63$1,386 May 23SELLYES66−$103$1,223 Realized+$4 Unrealized+$96 Total Profit+$100 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1524) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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67% of NO Positions Are in Profit

YES holders bought 65-79c with current price at 72c, putting 60% in profit and providing stable cost-basis support around the mid-60s. NO positions taken at 25-36c are deeply underwater on paper yet 67% remain profitable on partial exits, suggesting disciplined trimming rather than capitulation. Net P&L tilt favors YES, which reinforces the 72c floor since holders have little incentive to dump into strength.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

40% in profit

NO positions

67% in profit

Polymarket: 70c YES — $6.4M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 70c with $6.4M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 74c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	70c	$6.4M
Our Model	74c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 70% YES with $6.4M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 8 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 74c YES. 5 models agree on direction.