Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday, May 23, 2026, that a memorandum of understanding on a us x iran permanent peace deal has been "largely negotiated" following calls with Israel and other regional allies, with the framework also addressing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump described the document as a "Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE" that still requires formal ratification by Washington, Tehran, and the other participating governments. The announcement followed three months of active conflict and arrived alongside parallel reporting from Reuters citing Pakistani army officials that the two sides were approaching a "fairly comprehensive" arrangement. [Reuters, May 23]
Mediators are simultaneously closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension paired with a framework for nuclear talks, the Financial Times reported on May 23, citing people briefed on the negotiations. Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, the favored interlocutor between Washington and Tehran, traveled to the Iranian capital this week to advance the discussions, according to a Pakistani security official. Bloomberg characterized the state of play as "slight progress" with the deal still in limbo, underscoring the gap between an MOU framework and a binding settlement. Hawks in Washington argue any pause hands Iran time to reconstitute enrichment capacity, while regional analysts caution that an MOU is procedural scaffolding — not a treaty — and prior frameworks in the region have collapsed during the conversion window. [CNBC, May 23]
The structural factor determining resolution is the definitional gap between the MOU now being negotiated and a "permanent" settlement as the market defines it. A 60-day ceasefire extension with a nuclear talks framework would halt active hostilities but falls well short of the comprehensive treaty language required for a us x iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether the parties convert the MOU into a binding agreement covering sanctions relief, nuclear verification, and Strait of Hormuz access within roughly seven months — a compressed timeline given that prior U.S.-Iran frameworks, including the 2015 JCPOA, required years of follow-on negotiation. [Bloomberg, May 22]
Active market on Polymarket with $4.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 76c YES.
6/6 models agree on YES, fair value 89c vs market 88c. 2 tier-1 wallets aligned with models — BUY YES at 88c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | YES | 93c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 93c | 82% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 92c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 87c | 85% |
6 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (71–97c vs 88c). Kimi Macro leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 89c — market prices it at 88c. 1-point gap supports YES.
We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $39K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 65c–78c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | Retail | YES | $69.3K | +13% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | YES | $27.8K | +9% | |
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | MM | YES | $7.4K | +5% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $2.6K | -4% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.5K | -32% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | YES | $1.4K | +13% |
YES wallets entered between 65c–78c, NO wallets at 36c. At current price 76c, 80% of YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 76c with $4.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 89c. Significant 13-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 76c | $4.1M |
| Our Model | 89c | — |