US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 68% YES on Polymarket with $2.1M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 10 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

68c

32c

Prediction markets give a 68% probability to: us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31, 2026?.

Currently at 68%

Traded on Polymarket — $2.1M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 68c YES.

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Smart money signal: 10 tracked wallets positioned YES. Backed by $2.1M in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 69c

Smart money entered YES at 40c–74c. 86% of YES wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 10 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 9 market makers are providing $41K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 40c–74c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$15.6K	-30%
This Market Entered at 42c → now 31c (-30%), $15.6K on NO Activity · 11 events · May 18 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYNO62+$16$16 May 20BUYNO49+$2,195$2,207 May 20SELLNO49−$98$2,092 May 21BUYNO47+$11,982$13,977 May 21SELLNO48−$420$13,939 May 22BUYNO44+$5,171$17,884 May 22SELLNO50−$1,598$18,827 May 23SELLNO45−$6,270$10,573 May 24BUYNO36+$10,814$19,427 May 25BUYNO28+$249$15,231 May 25SELLNO29−$1,377$14,346 Realized−$616 Unrealized−$5,179 Total Profit−$5,795 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1294) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$6.6K	+57%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 68c (+57%), $6.6K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES40+$3,850$3,850 May 18SELLYES50−$4$4,808 Realized— Unrealized+$2,741 Total Profit+$2,742 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1560) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$4.5K	-7%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 31c (-7%), $4.5K on NO Activity · 5 events · May 18 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18SELLNO46−$1,028$0 May 20BUYNO47+$747$747 May 22BUYNO53+$121$964 May 24BUYNO44+$607$1,403 May 25BUYNO31+$4,110$5,105 Realized— Unrealized−$349 Total Profit−$349 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1604) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$4.4K	+7%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 68c (+7%), $4.4K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 18 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES35+$3,329$3,329 May 22BUYYES55+$12,508$17,739 May 22SELLYES55−$1,808$15,931 May 23SELLYES48−$10,929$3,089 Realized+$35 Unrealized+$1,238 Total Profit+$1,273 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (399) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$4.3K	+46%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 68c (+46%), $4.3K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 20 → May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES46+$3,099$3,100 May 21SELLYES51−$255$3,203 Realized+$26 Unrealized+$1,431 Total Profit+$1,457 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1502 trades).
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$3.3K	+20%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 68c (+20%), $3.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 23BUYYES57+$2,712$2,712 Realized— Unrealized+$555 Total Profit+$555 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$2.2K	+2%
This Market Entered at 67c → now 68c (+2%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 25BUYYES67+$2,192$2,192 Realized— Unrealized+$49 Total Profit+$49 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1444) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.2K	+14%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 68c (+14%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal May 21BUYYES60+$1,959$1,959 Realized— Unrealized+$278 Total Profit+$278 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1974) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.1K	-7%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 68c (-7%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 25BUYYES74+$1,225$1,225 Realized— Unrealized−$85 Total Profit−$85 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1032) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$1.1K	-30%
This Market Entered at 48c → now 31c (-30%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 5 events · May 21 → May 24 DatePositionAmountTotal May 21BUYNO48+$2,917$2,917 May 21SELLNO43−$1,528$1,067 May 22BUYNO41+$410$1,427 May 23BUYNO53+$584$2,429 May 24SELLNO38−$474$1,269 Realized−$312 Unrealized−$553 Total Profit−$866 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (964) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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86% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 40c–74c, NO wallets at 34c–48c. At current price 68c, 86% of YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

86% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 68c YES — $2.1M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 68c with $2.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 68c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	68c	$2.1M
Our Model	68c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 68% YES with $2.1M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 10 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.