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Resolved: Jun 08, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $19.1M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Resolved · JUN 08
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
41c
95c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
PIN Model NO 4c
92%
Compound Signal NO 27c
46%
Claude Analysis NO 3c
95%
DeepSeek Quant NO 8c
85%
Gemini Flash NO 15c
70%
Kimi Macro NO 8c
92%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is overwhelmingly NO, with entries clustered at 73-75c reflecting conviction the deal does not happen by June 7. The YES side shows scattered, low-conviction lottery tickets at 12-33c with no follow-through, while NO wallets committed at expensive levels — a clear directional signal that tracked capital views permanent peace as structurally unlikely in the timeframe.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x12d6..a8MMNO$96.2K+25%
0xc658..84 +242%MMYES$26.7K-27%
0xde7b..4bMMYES$22.2K-58%
0xeec5..feRetailNO$8.2K+20%
0x06c0..23MMNO$4.1K0%
0x5188..04MMYES$2.6K-60%
0xd1ac..d5MMYES$2.4K-88%
0xfd2b..50MMYES$2.2K-10%
0xbacd..35MMYES$1.8K-88%
0x24c8..e1MMYES$1.2K-80%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

65% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$20,480 on $167.6K capital deployed (avg -12.2%).

NO positions
65% in profit
YES positions
35% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 6c $19.1M 0c
AI Consensus 11c ✓ matched