How did 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $22.9M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Resolved · MAY 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	7c	86%
Compound Signal	NO	29c	42%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	12c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $15K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 84c–85c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x24c8..e1 +240%	MM	NO	$6.6K	+4%
This Market Entered at 84c → now 50c (+4%), $6.6K on NO ↑ Position grew +240% since last snapshot Activity · 2 events · May 21 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 21BUYNO87+$1,938$1,938 May 22BUYNO83+$4,425$6,270 Realized— Unrealized+$262 Total Profit+$262 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1576) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$4.4K	+4%
This Market Entered at 85c → now 50c (+4%), $4.4K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 21 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 21BUYNO86+$333$333 May 22BUYNO84+$3,934$4,261 Realized— Unrealized+$147 Total Profit+$147 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1336) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.7K	-31%
This Market Entered at 19c → now 50c (-31%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYYES18+$4,220$4,221 Realized— Unrealized−$1,311 Total Profit−$1,311 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1970) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$1.5K	-26%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (-26%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYYES17+$2,004$2,003 Realized— Unrealized−$527 Total Profit−$527 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1754) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

72% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,138 on $15.2K capital deployed (avg -14.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

72% in profit

YES positions

28% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	12c	$22.9M	0c
AI Consensus	14c	—	✓ matched

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