AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 59c |
18%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 35c |
60%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 74c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 58c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered at 68c and price has drifted to 74c, signaling the wallet bought below the current consensus and the market has since revalued higher. The single tracked position on the YES side with no NO conviction tilts the smart-money read toward continued deal-optionality, though dominant_side flags NO which suggests broader book disagreement. Thin tracked depth means this is a low-confidence directional signal — one wallet's entry, not a cluster.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc658..84 | MM | YES | $1.9K | +37% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$897 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg +47.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 93c | $2.6M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 58c | — | ✓ matched |