As of October 12, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?” at 94% YES with $363K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 15?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on YES, fair value 90c vs market 94c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 94c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 78c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 95c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 96c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate YES fair value below market (75–97c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 90c — market prices it at 94c. 4-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 95c, positioning it as a late-stage momentum bet on ceasefire continuation rather than an early value play. With no NO entries from this wallet, the signal is one-directional confidence in the status quo holding through October 15, though the 1c unrealized loss tempers how strongly that conviction reads. Absent any opposing smart-money flow, the wallet's stance implies the market's 94c YES price is a fair reflection of high-probability continuation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $1.2K | 0% |
With YES trading at 94c against tracked entries at 95c, every YES position is marginally underwater and no NO positions exist to offset the loss. The 1c gap between entry and current price implies slight downward pressure on YES, though the absence of NO entries means there is no active counter-bet driving the price lower. Support at 94c appears fragile given zero profitable positions, but the lack of NO-side participation suggests limited conviction in a ceasefire breakdown.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $363K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 90c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $363K |
| Our Model | 90c | — |