AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 17c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 35c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 35c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 17c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 22c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned NO at 82c, a high-confidence entry betting against USD.AI clearing the $400M FDV threshold. Smart money stacking NO near the ceiling signals directional conviction that the launch will underperform the $400M bar, aligning with the dominant NO side despite current unrealized losses.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcf6c..66 | MM | NO | $2.8K | -40% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,774 on $2.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $371.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 22c | — | × missed |