Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (21% YES).

What’s Happening

Global temperature data through mid-August 2026 has placed this year in a statistical dead heat for the record books, with the possibility of it becoming the second-hottest year on record now a central focus for climate scientists. According to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information, there is a 99.9% chance that 2026 will rank among the four warmest years ever logged, though their baseline model initially showed a 0% chance it would surpass 2025 as the hottest. However, that model does not account for the rapidly intensifying El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, which the Australian Bureau of Meteorology now projects could become the strongest ever recorded. July 2026 tied with July 2024 as the hottest month on record, and the warming trend has pushed the probability of a second-place finish to roughly 30%, according to recent analysis from the Nine network. [Yale Climate Connections, Aug 11]

The race for the 2026 temperature ranking has become a public scientific debate, with prominent climatologists staking out opposing positions on whether the year will end as the hottest or merely the second-hottest year on record. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has argued since spring that 2026 is more likely than not to finish in second place, while former NASA scientist James Hansen has maintained the year will take the top spot. In a recent exchange, Hansen framed their disagreement in equine terms, but Hausfather conceded that Hansen made the call earlier and with more confidence. The stakes are significant because a second-hottest year on record would still represent a major climate milestone, driven by the combined effects of accelerated human-caused warming and a supersized El Niño that is already contributing to extreme heat events across Europe, where France and the UK have braced for another wave of record temperatures. [The Climate Brink, Aug 01]

As of mid-August, 2026 is tracking as the third-hottest year globally, behind 2024 and 2025, but the remaining months of the year are expected to accelerate warming as El Niño peaks. The Japan Times reported on Aug 14 that experts now consider it likely 2026 will become the hottest year on record, a shift driven by the one-two punch of long-term warming and the periodic Pacific warming phenomenon. For the second-hottest year on record scenario to materialize, the El Niño would need to weaken faster than projected, or a sudden La Niña would need to emerge to cool the tropics. The next key data point will come in early September when the Copernicus Climate Change Service releases its August temperature assessment, which will clarify whether the year is on pace to edge out 2023 for second place or challenge 2025 for the top spot. [Japan Times, Aug 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $399K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 24c YES with $399K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.