Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO). Hartford sets new record high as Connecticut sees first heat wave of 2026.

What’s Happening

A prediction market currently places a 62% probability on 2026 becoming the second-hottest year on record, reflecting mounting concerns over accelerating climate trends. This forecast follows a series of extreme weather events, including Hartford, Connecticut setting a new record high of 96 degrees on May 19, 2026, breaking a 60-year-old record. The National Weather Service confirmed the reading surpassed the previous mark of 94 degrees set in 1962, while nearby Bridgeport fell just one degree short of its own record. Such localized heat waves are consistent with broader warming patterns that could push global average temperatures to historic highs, making the second-hottest year on record a plausible outcome. [Greenwich Time, May 20]

The probability is further bolstered by the emergence of a "Super" El Niño event, which scientists warn will strengthen through 2026 into the winter season, affecting hundreds of millions of people globally. Historical analogs from the 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 Super El Niños show that such phenomena typically elevate global temperatures, often leading to record-breaking annual heat. However, a recent climate report from the world's top scientists indicates that while the planet will surpass key warming limits, it may not get as hot as previously feared under worst-case scenarios. This nuanced outlook tempers the likelihood of a new all-time high but still supports the possibility of 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record, given the compounding effects of El Niño and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. [CNN, May 19]

Looking ahead, the trajectory of global temperatures in 2026 will depend on the intensity and duration of the current El Niño, as well as policy responses to climate change. The Washington Post report notes that scientists are revising their future scenarios, discarding both the best and worst-case projections as they prepare the next series of United Nations climate assessments. This recalibration suggests that while a record-shattering year is less certain, the odds of 2026 becoming the second-hottest year on record remain elevated due to the convergence of natural climate variability and human-caused warming. Monitoring agencies will release monthly temperature data throughout the year, providing clearer signals as the El Niño event peaks. [Washington Post, May 19]

Traded on Polymarket — $330K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 67c YES with $330K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.