Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?'?

As of October 2026, prediction markets price this at 38% YES on Polymarket with $454K in total trading volume.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus up to 5 AI analysts (only the models that responded that night are shown) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 73c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

NO

62c

YES

38c

As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?” at 38% YES with $454K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Down from 68% to 38% since 2026-07-09 (-30pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $454K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 4/5 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.

No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 38% YES with $454K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What do AI models predict for Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 73c YES. 4 models agree on direction.