Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 42% YES on Polymarket with $54K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

58c

YES

42c

Prediction markets give a 42% probability to: will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by april 30?.

Currently at 42%

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 42c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 42c

Smart money entered YES at 41c. 100% of YES wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 41c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.0K	+4%
This Market Entered at 41c → now 42c (+4%), $1.0K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1612 trades · economics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1612) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 41c. At current price 42c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 12 Cents

Significant 12-cent gap: Polymarket at 42c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 42c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	42c	$54K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	42c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 42% YES with $54K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.