Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 12, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.6M

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Q: How did 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 12, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 12

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

2 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	46c	8%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	72c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	25c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	55c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	72c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 61c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 41c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.0K	+17%
This Market Entered at 41c → now 50c (+17%), $1.0K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1568 trades · economics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1568) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,034 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	48c	$1.6M	0c
AI Consensus	61c	—	× missed

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