AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 8c |
84%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 19c |
62%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Single tracked wallet entered NO at 55c — a high-conviction short when the market was still pricing meaningful probability of 40-ship days. The 41-point drift in their favor validates the read that Hormuz throughput remains structurally below the 40-ship threshold through May 31. No tracked YES interest signals smart money sees no convexity in a late-window threshold breach.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | MM | NO | $3.1K | +63% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,526 on $3.1K capital deployed (avg +81.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $517.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |