Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES). US says two American merchant ships pass through Strait of Hormuz.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31 currently reflects a 30% probability of a "YES" outcome, a stark indicator of the severe disruption gripping the waterway. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled to a trickle following the onset of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, approximately 3,000 vessels typically passed through the strait each month before the conflict, but recent data shows only a handful of ships—such as the six recorded in a 24-hour period on April 29—are making the transit. The U.S. Treasury has further complicated the situation by issuing an advisory warning that any shipping company making payments to Iran for passage risks sanctions exposure, even for non-U.S. entities, effectively deterring commercial traffic [Marine News Magazine, Apr 29].

A significant development occurred on May 4, 2026, when the U.S. military announced that two American-flagged merchant ships successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such passage under the Trump administration's efforts to restore shipping flow. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) described the event as "a first step" in reopening the waterway, and confirmed that two American missile destroyers are now operating in the Arabian Gulf. However, the same day saw a fire and explosion aboard a vessel operated by South Korean shipper HMM in the strait, prompting Seoul to pledge close communication with relevant countries to ensure crew safety. These contrasting events underscore the fragile and volatile environment, where military escorts and diplomatic maneuvers are being tested against ongoing threats from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has previously vowed to attack U.S. forces [New York Post, May 4].

The broader implications for global markets are profound, as the strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer shipments. With the war in Iran entering its ninth week and no diplomatic resolution in sight, the question of whether 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by may 31 hinges on the ability of the U.S. and Iran to de-escalate or reach a temporary agreement. The current low probability of 30% reflects the reality that, despite the successful passage of two American ships, overall traffic remains far below pre-conflict levels. Analysts are watching for any signs of a broader reopening, such as the U.S. Treasury potentially issuing waivers for shipping payments, or Iran signaling a willingness to allow safe passage for commercial vessels without military confrontation [CNN, Apr 29].

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 30c YES.