AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 9c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money took the NO side at roughly even money (46c) and has been vindicated as the market repriced toward a near-certain NO resolution. The absence of any tracked YES entries and the deep NO profitability signal that this wallet views 60+ daily Hormuz transits as unlikely to trigger, positioning firmly for the status-quo NO outcome through July 31.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $2.5K | +53% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,994 on $2.5K capital deployed (avg +117.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $288.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |