Iran is pushing a toll plan for Strait of Hormuz shipping as US envoys head to Doha, signaling transit volumes remain constrained.
The question of whether 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 hinges on how quickly the vital energy corridor normalizes after the 2026 Iran-U.S. war. Iran lifted its blockade of the strait after striking an initial deal with Washington to end the conflict, but shipping remains far below pre-war throughput. On Sunday, July 5, oil and gas traffic showed signs of recovery, with six oil and gas freighters observed navigating a route close to Oman's coast — a day after a batch of vessels performed unexplained U-turns and detours while trying to avoid Iran's military. [Fortune, Jul 05]
The path to 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, depends heavily on the security guarantees now underpinning transits. U.S. naval forces have reportedly begun supporting and protecting supertanker transits through the strait, particularly along the Omani corridor, providing a confidence boost amid the fragile ceasefire and persistent naval tensions. The initial deal stipulated commercial ships would transit free of charge for 60 days, though it remains unclear what arrangement will follow that window — a source of uncertainty that could deter operators and slow the return of daily volumes toward the 60-ship threshold. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 02]
What comes next is being negotiated directly. On June 30, U.S. envoys headed to Doha as Iran pushed a toll plan, with technical teams meeting Qatari and Pakistani mediators. Iran and Oman have since presented a proposal for joint collection of administrative fees, a dramatic shift from the pre-war norm of free passage. An Iranian envoy said on July 4 that friendly nations would receive "special" fee treatment. Whether these fee disputes accelerate or stall normalization will determine if daily transits recover to full capacity before the deadline. [NBC News, Jul 03]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($68K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 34c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 44c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 44c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $1.7K | +37% |
NO wallets entered at 44c. At current price 34c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Significant 20-cent gap: Polymarket at 34c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 34c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 34c | $68K |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 34c | — |