AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 18c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 18c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 3c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 77c when the market still priced meaningful transit probability, and has ridden the decay to near-zero without trimming. The absence of any YES accumulation combined with held NO exposure signals wallets view 80-ship days as structurally unreachable in the remaining window, not a mispricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe ★ | Retail | NO | $1.4K | +23% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$396 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg +29.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $751.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |