AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 57c |
14%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 74c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 78c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 78c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
One alpha wallet quietly accumulated YES at 60c, signaling conviction that LCK retains MSI dominance heading into the tournament. The 8c gap between entry and current price is modest enough that the position is unlikely to flip soon, but single-wallet conviction without a second anchor is weak signal — directional read is tentatively bullish YES, not confirmed.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | Retail | YES | $4.7K | -7% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,055 on $4.7K capital deployed (avg +65.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56c | $491.5K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 77c | — | ✓ matched |