AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 95c |
90%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 70c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 87c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 84c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 85c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is unanimously long YES at near-current pricing, signaling consensus that Dybantsa remains the projected #1 pick with no hedging behavior. Entries clustered at 82c-84c suggest wallets view 16c downside as fair compensation for tail risk (injury, late scouting shift) rather than an asymmetric bet. Direction bias: continued YES drift toward resolution unless a draft-narrative shock emerges.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | YES | $5.2K | -7% | |
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $2.6K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,542 on $7.7K capital deployed (avg +20.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $323.5K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 85c | — | ✓ matched |