Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 9c YES with $247K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 10c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 73c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 58% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 90c | 90% |
5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–98c vs 90c). Kimi Macro leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 90c. 1-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is positioned exclusively NO, buying at 86c — a bet that Alberta will not vote for independence in 2026. The tight 86c entry with zero YES conviction signals directional confidence in the status-quo outcome, consistent with the base-rate improbability of a successful independence vote. No tracked capital is defending YES, so the signal points cleanly toward NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $6.5K | +5% |
The single tracked wallet is fully in profit on its NO position, entered at 86c and now marked near 90c as YES sits at 10c. There is no profitable YES exposure on the book, so downward pressure on YES faces no smart-money resistance. The P&L skew (100% of NO in profit, 0% of YES) reinforces a one-sided market leaning against independence.
Polymarket prices YES at 9c with $247K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $247K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |