AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at the 96c ceiling, signaling high-conviction fade of Caruso's MVP candidacy rather than opportunistic positioning. Entries this close to 100c indicate smart money treats this as a near-certain resolution to NO, with the 8c YES price reflecting residual lottery-ticket demand rather than informed flow. Directional read: continued drift toward 0c as resolution approaches.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdcc9..34 | MM | NO | $17.0K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$705 on $17.0K capital deployed (avg +4.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $89.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |