Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 23%: Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (23% YES). Nvidia stock clinches record close, pushing market cap over $5 trillion once again.

What’s Happening

As of late April 2026, prediction market data indicates a 23% probability that Alphabet will be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, with a corresponding 77% probability against that outcome. This assessment comes amid a volatile landscape for mega-cap tech stocks, where Nvidia recently reclaimed a market capitalization above $5 trillion on April 24, driven by a 4.2% rally fueled by Intel earnings and a nuclear power deal with Oklo. Nvidia's surge added over $200 billion in value in a single session, reinforcing its position as a dominant force in the race for the world's largest company by market cap. [Yahoo Finance, Apr 24]

The probability for Alphabet's ascension to the top spot faces headwinds from both Nvidia's sustained momentum and the broader macroeconomic calendar. On April 29, a pivotal "All-In Wednesday" saw the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision coincide with earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Alphabet itself. Alphabet's first-quarter results, released that same day, showed profit soaring as AI investments propelled the stock to new highs, yet options markets had priced in over $800 billion in combined earnings-related market cap movement across mega-cap names. Historical data suggests Alphabet's post-earnings moves have often underperformed options pricing, potentially limiting its ability to close the gap with Nvidia. [Bloomberg, Apr 29] [CNBC, Apr 29]

Looking ahead to the May 31 deadline, the key variable remains whether Alphabet can sustain its AI-driven growth trajectory to overtake Nvidia's market cap, which has repeatedly crossed the $5 trillion threshold. The Washington Post reported that Alphabet's market value has more than doubled over the past year, but Nvidia's chip dominance and the nuclear energy catalyst have kept it ahead. Traders on Kalshi have sharply raised bets on AI-related mentions in Alphabet's earnings calls, signaling that investor focus remains on the company's ability to monetize its AI infrastructure. For Alphabet to become the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, it would need a sustained rally that outpaces Nvidia's current lead, a scenario that the 23% probability reflects as challenging given the current market dynamics. [Washington Post, Apr 29] [Seeking Alpha, Apr 29]

Traded on Polymarket — $72K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($72K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 23c YES.