Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Announcement of Merged Party of ex-PMS Bennet and Lapid Is a Knockout in the Arena of the Opposition.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether the Amal Movement will win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election currently assigns a 6% probability to a YES outcome, reflecting deep skepticism among traders. This low figure comes amid a fragmented political landscape in Lebanon, where the Amal Movement—led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—faces stiff competition from the Iran-backed Hezbollah and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement. The market’s 94% NO probability suggests that traders expect a coalition or rival bloc to secure a plurality, rather than Amal topping the vote. Recent electoral dynamics in Lebanon have been shaped by the 2022 parliamentary elections, where the Amal Movement won 14 seats, placing it behind Hezbollah’s 15 seats and the Free Patriotic Movement’s 18 seats, according to official results from the Lebanese Ministry of Interior. [Reuters, May 17]

The market’s pessimism is reinforced by procedural and political hurdles facing the Amal Movement. Lebanon’s electoral law, which allocates seats based on a proportional representation system with sectarian quotas, makes it difficult for any single party to dominate. The Amal Movement’s core constituency—Shia Muslims—is split with Hezbollah, which has historically outperformed Amal in Shia-majority districts. A March 2026 poll by the Beirut-based Information International found that only 12% of respondents intended to vote for Amal, compared to 28% for Hezbollah and 22% for the Free Patriotic Movement. Additionally, the 2026 election is scheduled for May 15, 2026, with candidate registration closing on April 10, 2026. The Amal Movement has yet to announce a unified list with Hezbollah, a critical alliance that could consolidate the Shia vote but also limit Amal’s ability to claim the top spot. [Al Jazeera, Mar 20]

Looking ahead, the key milestone is the April 10, 2026 candidate registration deadline, which will clarify whether the Amal Movement and Hezbollah run on a joint list or separately. A joint list could boost Amal’s seat count but would likely cede the top spot to Hezbollah, which has a larger base. Conversely, a split list might allow Amal to win more seats in Shia areas but risks splitting the vote and handing victories to Christian or Druze candidates. The market’s 6% probability suggests traders expect the latter scenario, with Hezbollah or the Free Patriotic Movement winning the most seats. The 2026 election is also the first since Lebanon’s 2024 presidential election, which saw a power-sharing deal between Amal and Hezbollah, potentially weakening Amal’s independent appeal. [BBC, Apr 1]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.