As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?” at 26% YES with $121K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 26% probability to: will an independent win the nebraska senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 20c vs market 26c. BUY NO at 26c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 72c | 55% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 81c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 79c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (64–98c vs 74c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 80c — market prices it at 74c. 6-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 70c, signaling conviction that an independent will not win the Nebraska Senate race. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money evidence backing the independent thesis. This one-sided positioning suggests informed flow sees the 26c YES price as overvalued and expects further downside.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $1.9K | +6% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit while every YES entry is underwater, with NO entries clustered at 70c against a current YES price of 26c. This asymmetry means NO holders have a 44c cushion, giving them little urgency to sell and creating strong resistance to any YES rally. The lack of profitable YES positions removes a natural source of buying support, reinforcing the 26c level as a ceiling rather than a floor.
Polymarket prices YES at 26c with $121K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 20c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $121K |
| Our Model | 20c | — |