How did 'Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 12, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 12, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $83.0K

Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?

Resolved · MAY 12

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (6 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	16c	68%
Compound Signal	NO	39c	22%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	18c	72%
Grok Contrarian	YES	45c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	35c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	32c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 31c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 75c–77c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$4.6K	-8%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (-8%), $4.6K on NO Activity · 6 events · Apr 24 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYNO83+$1,538$1,538 Apr 29BUYNO76+$4,110$5,526 Apr 30BUYNO74+$38$5,413 May 05BUYNO68+$640$5,612 May 06BUYNO70+$70$5,806 May 07BUYNO68+$226$5,914 Realized— Unrealized−$474 Total Profit−$474 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1248 trades).
0x9dd9..bd	Retail	NO	$1.8K	-13%
This Market Entered at 77c → now 50c (-13%), $1.8K on NO Activity · 13 events · Apr 12 → May 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 12BUYNO80+$976$976 Apr 18BUYNO83+$21$1,032 Apr 24BUYNO79+$156$1,145 Apr 25BUYNO82+$7$1,193 Apr 26BUYNO80+$26$1,179 Apr 28BUYNO73+$300$1,379 Apr 29BUYNO75+$311$1,736 Apr 30BUYNO74+$9$1,719 May 02BUYNO71+$92$1,732 May 05BUYNO68+$105$1,761 May 06BUYNO68+$9$1,789 May 07BUYNO68+$3$1,787 May 09BUYNO68+$5$1,779 Realized— Unrealized−$240 Total Profit−$240 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1054 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,384 on $6.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	32c	$83.0K	100c
AI Consensus	31c	—	× missed

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