Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES). BOE Survey Finds Inflation Expectations Rise, But Wage Outlook Cools - WSJ.
Currently at 27%
Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 27c YES.
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (64–87c vs 73c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 78c — market prices it at 73c. 5-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 40c — Despite the market's 27% YES price and mathematical models suggesting a fair value of 24%-36% for YES, there is a potential tail risk of ...
2 Active Wallets on This Market
Smart money entered exclusively on NO at 75-77c, signaling early conviction that April inflation would not hit 3.8%. The absence of YES entries and the dominant NO positioning reinforces a bearish directional read — wallets are not fading the move, they front-ran it.
Both tracked wallets are underwater on NO entries at 75c-77c against current YES price of 27c, implying NO holders sit roughly 23-25c in profit on the inverse leg. Zero profitable YES positions and dominant NO conviction suggest price support sits below 30c, with smart money already monetized on the downside thesis.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 27c YES — $52K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 27c with $52K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
What are the current odds for Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 27% YES with $52K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 22c YES. 6 models agree on direction.