Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Apr 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $2.0M

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Q: How did 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Apr 30, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 30

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 8 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	95c	90%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	68c	36%
Claude Analysis	YES	92c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	95c	85%
Grok Contrarian	NO	35c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	88c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	95c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 83c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

The 87c entry signals smart money treating Anthropic's lead as already priced-in rather than a contrarian bet — buying near resolution suggests confidence in status-quo continuation through April. Dominant NO label conflicts with the actual YES-only positioning, indicating the structural read (Anthropic stays #1) outweighs the headline tilt.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	YES	$13.2K	+5%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+5%), $13.2K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 04 → Apr 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 04BUYYES94+$100$100 Apr 09BUYYES93+$1,000$1,098 Apr 22BUYYES69+$1,414$2,238 Apr 23BUYYES87+$600$3,404 Apr 24BUYYES90+$7,874$11,397 Apr 25BUYYES89+$1,600$12,847 Realized— Unrealized+$634 Total Profit+$634 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (238) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,957 on $13.2K capital deployed (avg +14.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	92c	$2.0M	100c
AI Consensus	83c	—	✓ matched

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