AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 85c |
60%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 92c |
70%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 42c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 84c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 85c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet holds only YES at 92c, indicating a strong conviction bet that Anthropic leads by end of September 2026. This entry above the current market price suggests the wallet expects upward revaluation, but its lack of NO hedging leaves it fully exposed to downside. The absence of NO entries implies no smart money is actively betting against this outcome, reinforcing bullish sentiment despite short-term losses.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $1.8K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$160 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +8.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $1.0M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 81c | — | ✓ matched |